Greggs excels in a chill year for frozen

The phrase ‘victims of their own success’ usually applies to showbiz casualties, but in 2013 it also applied to sausage rolls.

When Greggs launched a frozen range into Iceland in 2011, it flew out the freezers. And the past year has been no different, with sales soaring by 91% - and in just two years, it’s now worth over £21m in retail sales value [Nielsen 52 w/e 12 October].

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Not surprisingly, the major multiples were hungry for a slice of the action. However, concerns that booming frozen sales may take sales from its retail arm have come true, and Greggs has decided to focus on its shops.

“Our wholesale business with Iceland has been very successful and this business continues to be important to us. Nevertheless we have no plans to extend wholesale beyond Iceland to other retailers at present,” explains Greggs CEO Roger Whiteside. “Our priority is to focus on our core business and improve the quality of our 1,700 shops in the growing food-on-the-go market.”

Greggs will have a solid customer base if it ever changes its mind. Nielsen points out that “growth in slices has been driven by the Greggs range”, and the “extension of the Greggs brand into individual pies has delivered an additional £1.9m to the category this year, making the extension the biggest contributor to growth from NPD this year.”

Top Products: Frozen - The vital statistics

Other players in pastries will wish they had similar problems. Birds Eye, McDougall’s and Pukka Pies have all seen value sales plummet in a category down 4.3%. And no prizes for guessing the main culprit. But the horsemeat scandal’s biggest impact was on frozen ready meals - down 8.4% in value. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that of the top 10, only Bisto, which launched a series of ads directly addressing Horsegate, bucked the trend with value sales up 64% Findus, which unfortunately became synonymous with the scandal, saw value sales plunge 43% to £5.4m.

Horsemeat was not an issue for frozen fish , yet the category still took a knock in 2013, with value down 2.3%. The top five are exclusively made up of Young’s and Birds Eye products. The latter blames the heatwave for the downturn, saying the “hot summer” meant “people were not inclined to turn on their ovens”. It adds: “Frozen fish has also experienced switching losses to chilled fish since early this year”.

Despite that, Birds Eye says it grew its share in a declining market, and the standout performance of the category was Birds Eye Fish Fusions, continuing the trend among fish lovers for something a bit different. Value sales were up 69% and Birds Eye also added a Mediterranean variety to the range.

Shoppers looking for some chips to go with their fish opted for McCain, which continues to dominate the category with seven products in the top 10 - including a new entry for Baked Jackets. Value sales up by 30% make last year’s launch a real NPD winner for McCain. “With the right product solution, consumers are willing to change their cooking habits,” says a spokesman. “Many shoppers have converted from preparing jacket potatoes from scratch, with the sector now worth £34.5m compared with just £3.8m in 2011.”

And it’s not all about baked spuds. As well as five-minute fries (see Top Launch) and a new range of waffles, McCain retro crinkle cut chips also rocketed up the table from 23rd place to 11th, with a value increase of 25%, thanks to a promotional push on gondola ends.

In pizza, only two players - Dr Oetker and 2 Sisters - get a look-in in the Top 10. Dr Oetker claims the top three spots once again, with Chicago Town Deep Dish, Dr Oetker Ristorante and Chicago Town Takeaway, as “new households and new consumers” try frozen pizza, says a spokeswoman. A £10 pizza voucher giveaway printed on six million Dr Oetker Ristorante packs this year saw shoppers increase brand spend by 79%.

2 Sisters’ Goodfella’s takes the next three spots. And although it’s been in a bit of a limbo for many years, through senior management and ownership changes, there are signs of improvement. At number six, up from 49, is Superiore pizza. And Goodfella’s new Extra Thin, launched in April, is flying.

“We’ve seen positive short-term trends including 2% growth across the whole range in the last 12 weeks,” says a 2 Sisters spokesman. “We’ve released a new, improved Superiore and seen consumers engage with the Extra Thin range, with over 700,000 households purchasing it while it was listed in just Tesco and Sainsbury ’s, beating NPD benchmarks in both stores.”

For pudding, the venerable Viennetta has been knocked off the top spot by Aunt Bessie’s, thanks to a 22% value uplift in the latter’s Great British Puddings range. However, Greggs isn’t just shifting a load of pies: its sweet pastries have risen from 20th to 8th over the year, thanks to a staggering value sales boost of 192%. It might only be selling a fraction of Aunt Bessie’s volumes, but given the range is only available in one retailer, those sales are remarkable. So it’s probably safe to assume that Greggs’ frozen rivals, in sweet or savoury, will be happy to know they have put their plans on ice.

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