Single-use vapes ban: what next for the top two brands?

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Both ElfBar and Lost Mary built their success on disposable lines

ElfBar and Lost Mary are two of the biggest vaping brands. They have helped category grow its value once again this year, to £1.8bn [NIQ 52 w/e 7 September 2024].

The cornerstone of their appeal lies in disposable devices. But now, those devices are to be banned from June 2025, the government confirmed last week, due to their inherent environmental harm and appeal to underage users.

So, is Heaven Gifts – the Chinese company behind them both – in a hellish existential crisis? Or can it survive and prosper within the new regulations?

man vaping disposable single use vape

Vape brands have already introduced within-regulation, reusable and rechargeable ‘high puff count’ devices

The legislation is set to hit the entire market. Single-use vapes make up 60% of sales in the category, according to market analysis shared by Heaven Gifts. That’s lower than the 80% of a few years ago, but still significant.

To maintain appeal in the wake of the ban, the likes of ElfBar and Lost Mary will “need to ensure they have a product set that captures the convenience and experience of single-use products”, says Liam Humberstone, technical director at vape retailer and brand Totally Wicked.

That effort is underway. Given the long run-up to the legislation, the brands – and their rivals – have introduced within-regulation, reusable and rechargeable ‘high puff count’ devices. While these took a back seat during the recent disposable boom, they are now being more widely distributed.

A spokeswoman for Heaven Gifts said it had taken “proactive steps to stay aligned with the changing regulatory landscape by continuing to diversify its product ranges with effective alternatives to single-use devices”. Crucially, these “retain the ease of use, convenience and user experience that made them well-received smoking cessation aids for adult smokers in the first place”.

But will users go for them? “The fact that these brands have already developed rechargeable, refillable formats of their products should ensure that consumers have a viable alternative,” Humberstone says.

Crucially, vapers can still walk into a store and ask for an ElfBar, and “the popularity of the brands cannot be denied”, Humberstone adds.

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The Heaven Gifts spokeswoman says “the brands are well positioned to maintain their market-leading status, having expanded their respective ranges” into reusables and refillables. “Our advantage lies in our strong brand recognition, high-quality products and flavours that prioritise the adult users’ experience, and our proprietary Technology,” she says.

Plus, let’s not forget the vaping sector has survived tough regulation before. See the 2016 Tobacco & Related Products Regulations, which limited vape juice refills to 10ml containers (60ml had been the standard until then).

“The doom-mongers predicted that would kill the industry by stifling innovation but exactly the opposite happened,” says UK Vaping Industry Association (UKVIA) director general John Dunne.

Of course, the ban’s disruption of the market “allows the opportunity for new competition” says Humberstone. “But rivals will need to work hard to displace existing brands.”

Lost Mary

Has vaping hit its peak?

Perhaps more concerning for Heaven Gifts is the macro trend of plateauing vaping uptake. An October UCL study found that among the adult population in England, vaping had levelled off since early 2023. The overall category growth is only 2.5% this year [NIQ], after more than doubling in value last year.

There is also the likelihood of further regulations, which could include flavour restrictions, limits on store displays, and plain packaging.

No doubt that was part of the reason the company last month appointed former Defra secretary George Eustice and former National Crime Agency director of investigations Steve Bennett to a new advisory board. The aim was to “guide us to be a more socially responsible corporate citizen” said Heaven Gifts global VP Victor Xiao at the time – but they could also help influence incoming restrictions.

Adding to the challenge is the announcement this week of a flat rate of excise duty on vaping liquids of £2.20 per 10ml. That will push up price, alongside an equivalent increase of £2.20 per 100 cigarettes in tobacco duty.

Dunne remains positive, and stresses the vaping industry has “proved to be very resilient over the years”.

But one way or another, the get-rich-quick opportunity of disposable devices seems over. It could be a bump back down to earth for Heaven Gifts.

Vape brands have already introduced within-regulation, reusable and rechargeable ‘high puff count’ devices