beef

September imports of 13,300t down from 13,700t of 12 months earlier Imports defy pessimistic forecasts sparked by FMD Imports of beef have not yet surged to anything like the tonnage predicted to result from FMD, leaving traders puzzled though still anticipating a sharp decline in home producers' market share over the next couple of years. Latest data from Defra and Eurostat indicate a downturn in overseas sourced supplies to below the level reported a year earlier, following a sharp increase in midsummer. The available figures are for shipments only to the end of September, but more recent domestic production and consumption estimates suggest imports have continued to fall far short of dramatic forecasts debated in the marketplace when the disease disrupted of the home industry. MLC Market Outlook calculations a couple of months ago put the increase in imports during the July-September quarter at probably well over a third against a year previously, offsetting an assumed 10% drop in home output. Subsequent DEFRA estimates based on throughput reported by abattoirs, have been roughly in line with the MLC's production figures. However, the decline in home output was accompanied by a year-on-year increase of only 5% in imports during the three-month period. According to Defra, landings in August totalled 15,400t, well up from 13,300t in the corresponding month. But the July total had been only 300t heavier at 11,900t, and in September imports of 13,300t were down from the 13,700t of 12 months earlier. Defra now reckons October home production was only 4% lighter than the same month last year. TN Sofres reckons household consumption was up slightly in this period, but evidence of weakness in the catering and further processed sectors makes it hard to believe there has been room for large additional imported volumes. {{MEAT }}