The supermarkets are battling with a very low tide of activity as Christmas 2013 approaches. No doubt Santa will turn up, though maybe a little late, and the new year updates could make for variable reading with one or two tough outcomes. But what do we expect for next year’s festive season?

Well, we feel pretty confident in asserting that Christmas 2014 will not be one where much of Britain is basking in the glow of a World Cup win by England. We also expect the UK to be broadly intact after the Scottish independence vote. However, that political event could be an especially interesting one if opinion polls suggest a tighter outcome than is presently the case the supermarkets have already suggested the possibility of an independent Scotland facing higher prices.

“We expect the economy to be stronger going into Christmas 2014”

Christmas 2014 will also be the last one prior to the general election. The economy will, of course, be a critical backdrop to its outcome. We expect robust growth for the UK in 2014, with the possibility of material improvement in public finances. However, central to the political process will be how households are feeling. At the moment, the prevailing mood is one of gradually improving household incomes but still a caution about spending.

We expect the economy to be stronger still going into Christmas 2014, perhaps benefiting from a step up in business investment and a recovery in the EU economy. As such, we believe the consumer will also be more active. However, this improvement will not be the same for all the South and East is likely to outperform the North and West, the latter with a greater dependency upon the public sector and welfare. Furthermore, shopping habits that heavily featured in the recession, such as waste management, are likely to persist.

The chiefs of the big supermarkets will be praying for a rise in the level of trade driven by recovery. Another hot summer wouldn’t go amiss, either.

Of course, alternatively, England may win the World Cup, and the collective horror north of the border of such an outcome may act as a tidal wave towards Scottish independence… I wish everyone a very happy new year, whatever happens.

Clive Black is head of research at Shore Capital