In more than 50 years of reporting and conducting opinion polls, I’ve rarely seen such a clear, consistent story of progressive change in public attitudes as I have with smoking.
Time and again we’ve seen the same pattern. A health-related controversy sparks fierce debate. Campaigners make their case, opinion shifts, MPs respond, parliament passes reform, the law takes effect – and the public overwhelmingly approves. The outcry fades.
We’ve seen it with the bans on tobacco advertising, smoking on public transport and in offices, the introduction of graphic health warnings, removing cigarette displays in shops, and plain packaging. Each time, tobacco’s defenders claim the sky will fall in. Each time, they’re wrong.
So, has the tide turned? Has the reduction in smoking rates lulled us into thinking the battle is over? Has the rise of parties like Reform UK, whose leader Nigel Farage lauds smokers as “heroes of the nation”, shifted sentiment? The short answer is no.
Broad support
There remains strong public support for further reforms across all parties, ages, and even among many smokers, found recent YouGov polling of over 11,000 adults in England on behalf of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH). Three reforms in particular show the direction of travel.
First, 59% support banning smoking in outdoor seating areas at pubs, cafés, and restaurants. That includes 46% of Reform UK voters – not exactly the libertarian backlash we’re told to expect. While 56% of smokers oppose the measure, only 13% of adults now smoke.
By contrast, former smokers – who outnumber current smokers nearly three to one – overwhelmingly back tighter restrictions. Add to that the 55% who have never smoked, and it’s clear: strong support dwarfs strong opposition.
Second, 76% of the public support a levy on tobacco manufacturers to fund quit programmes and youth prevention. Even among smokers, support stands at 55%.
The third, and perhaps most telling, stat: 68% support raising the age of sale year on year. It’s a plan first proposed by Rishi Sunak and now being implemented by Labour. This “smoke-free generation” policy is the most radical reform yet – and the most popular.
Yet, despite this strong support, last November health secretary Wes Streeting dropped plans to extend the smoking ban to outdoor hospitality areas. His rationale? To support the hospitality industry. But YouGov’s data suggest 38% of adults would be more likely to visit smoke-free outdoor spaces, compared with just 18% who say they’d be less likely.
A new hospitality world
The truth is, the world of hospitality has evolved. Traditional pubs may have declined, but restaurants, wine bars, and clubs have grown – many thriving post-ban. Even the British Beer and Pub Association admitted it was “pretty impossible” to pin pub closures on smoking legislation alone.
The public is not crying out for libertarian heroics. Just 3% of non-smokers strongly defend a “right to smoke” in beer gardens. This is not a moment that demands political courage – just common sense.
Support among Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green voters, as well as across all age groups, is broadly consistent. There are times when MPs must show bravery to do the right thing, but this isn’t one of them. They can support anti-smoking measures confidently, knowing it costs them nothing politically. For once, doing the right thing also means doing the popular thing.
As the landmark Tobacco and Vapes Bill enters its final stages in parliament, and to mark World No Tobacco Day (31 May), now is the time for government to go further and faster.
Peter Kellner, former trustee of ASH and former president of YouGov
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