What is it with war? Even in the gentle world of grocery there’s no escaping humankind’s obsession with duffing up one’s neighbours. In the past year we’ve had milk wars, banana wars, the war on sugar and – as we revealed in our 2016 Top Products Survey – the supermarkets have lost more than £800m thanks to… the price war!
Of course, there are many reasons for this fixation with conflict. With competition stiffening and the pound weakening, negotiations between retailers and their suppliers are increasingly fraught. But this is the season for loving one’s neighbours, not duffing them up. So here are five far more benign societal (and unexpected) changes that have impacted on sales. See, the world’s not all bad, is it?
Working from home: The TUC reckons 1.5 million Brits now work from home, an increase of a fifth in a decade. This might be great for productivity, but it’s not good for the personal care business (or presumably our personal hygiene). Nearly £60m has been wiped off personal care sales in the past year. Brands say this is partly down to the fact that more of us are working remotely, so there’s less need to wash, shower or shave so often. Yuck. We’re also washing our hair less, though that’s also down to…
The smoking ban: Believe it or not, it’s 10 years since smoking was banned in pubs. Before that a few drinks at the pub would necessitate a full outfit change and a hairwash to get rid of the smell of the fags. Yet personal care and laundry brands surely remember those days fondly, as the fact fewer of us are exposed to smoke has taken a big bite out of sales of shampoo and detergent. “Fewer people are smoking, so females are using shampoo as frequently,” says Nielsen analyst Jessica Ragoschke.
Chinese bulk buyers: Strange but true: an enterprising bunch of private entrepreneurs from China are leaving a big mark on the £440m infant milk formula market. This time a year ago we reported a £52m surge in sales, driven by Chinese visitors stocking up on supermarket-bought milk powder and returning home laden with the stuff. Now, after the imposition of new rules in China, sales are down £20m. Danone Nutricia says the Chinese connection is the “primary driver” for the decline. Chinese demand for our milk, driven by mistrust of domestically produced infant formula following contamination scandals, is still there, of course. But with the new rules curtailing the efforts of private individuals to cash in, trade is becoming more sophisticated. Milk powder exports to China are booming, and with the pound weakened by the Brexit vote, baby milk from Blighty is becoming more attractive.
Bloated bellies: It’s not medical need that’s driven £123m growth in sales of free-from products. For the most part it’s been Brits’ pre-occupation with their bloated bellies. These days we don’t blame the amount of food we’re filling ourselves with for that bloated feeling, but the type of food. And, as Alpro explains in this video, gluten-free, wheat-free, grains-free or dairy-free have become bywords for healthy.
Abstinence: Whatever happened to the rebellious youth? Nearly one in five millennials don’t drink now, according to a Demos poll, and two thirds say booze is not important to their social lives. And a Harris Interactive poll for us in October found that nearly half of Brits are trying to cut back on how much they drink. Maybe then, you’d expect supermarket booze sales to be tanking. They’re not. Pubs have been hit hardest. Volumes are up in most booze subsectors. And as we cut back, when we do choose to take a drink, they’re prepared to spend a little bit more. See the growth in ‘craft’ beer and spirits for proof. Even events such as Dry January and Stoptober are an opportunity: AB InBev says its alcohol-free Beck’s Blue was Waitrose’s bestselling beer last January.
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