We are at a pivotal moment in the year. And there’s all to play for: resting on these next few days are budgets, bonuses and careers. Based on soft trading in October and November, and the latest four-week data to early December, unless there is a radical change in spending patterns over the last week of trading, the health of food and drink retail remains in doubt.

So, hats off to the success stories in The Grocer’s annual Top Products Survey. Our 35 reports, produced in association with Nielsen, detail the performance of some 5,000 products, and examine the wider fortunes of 100 categories.

Among the fascinating insights in our mammoth report is the value and volume increase in bottled water. Lobbyists (and The Guardian) will seize upon it as an example of environmental profligacy - as if it’s somehow worse than flinging a sportscap energy drink or aluminium can in the bin - but it’s nothing of the sort.

“Unless there is a radical change in spending patterns over the last week of trading, the health of food and drink retail will remain in doubt”

Adam Leyland, Editor

While the summer heatwave has contributed to the growth, bottled water sales have, in fact, increased fairly consistently since 2009. And it’s not because consumers are wasteful: it’s because a lot of us are using water as a healthier, lower-calorie alternative to sports drinks and other sweetened soft drinks. So it’s not a question of tap or bottled. It’s bottled water or bottled something else in a lot of cases. And invariably that something else would have been more calorific.

Water brands have grown their sales partly by tapping into the inherent health equity in their brands by developing flavoured water lines. While some of these contain some sugar, I see no harm in them doing so. If soft drinks suppliers can achieve hydration for consumers with fewer calories, even the health lobby should approve.

On a related note, you will also have seen (from last week’s issue of The Grocer) that the size of a Mars bar has been cut, and now contains 233 calories. Knowing Mars Chocolate CEO Fiona Dawson as I do, I’m inclined to be less cynical than I otherwise might be over Mars’ claims that the reduction has been made as a Responsibility Deal pledge, and not to keep the price down. But I also know health pledges carry risks.

A few years ago, Walkers introduced, via the convenience channel, small bags of Quavers and other snacks containing less than 100 calories, one of a number of measures introduced to ensure owner PepsiCo met ambitious health targets it had set. But today, my local c-store only stocks larger grab bags and - new this autumn - ‘sharing’ bags.

And the danger in Mars linking its move to the Responsibility Deal is that it may later revert to a volume play and run the risk of being attacked by the health lobby it says it’s trying to appease (And let’s face it, it still sells Mars Duos).

Buried deep within our Top Products Survey there’s also a salutary tale regarding volume from the sugar confectionery category. Swizzels Matlow has gone back to the future to grow its sales. Its range of penny chews don’t now cost a penny, but they’ve been reduced from 13 or 14p a line, to 10p. The result has been to boost sales value by 20%.

The moral of the story is that price engineering can work: for the health of the nation, and the health of the industry.

So, have a healthy and happy Christmas, and a prosperous new year. And good luck.

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