What’s the outlook for fruit & veg supplies next year?

In fresh food, 2023 has been dominated by shortages: from eggs to cucumbers and potatoes to tomatoes, the category has been blighted by reduced supply as well as higher prices.

Weather has been a core factor, wreaking havoc on planting. Growers have contended with a frosty winter followed by a wet summer and delayed autumn. And that’s before the 300% higher than long-term average rainfall seen in the past couple of months.

So, as we leave 2023, can we hope those supply issues will go with it, to be replaced by a steadier stream of food in 2024?

Unfortunately, volatile weather is already causing problems that will run well into the new year. “The recent poor weather and flooding has made harvesting some crops such as potatoes a particular challenge,” says NFU horticulture and potatoes board chair Martin Emmett.

Not only does waterlogged land pose a challenge for harvesting, it also affects how long potatoes can be stored, due to the speed at which they rot. This, says Mintec analyst Harry Campbell, may cause more supply issues down the line.

“A lot of growers are a bit worried about meeting their longer-term contracts because they may not have the crop available, which is driving the markets up,” he adds.

There may also be an impact on future crops like brassicas in the new year, says British Growers Association CEO Jack Ward. The consistently wet weather over the past couple of months is likely to delay spring crops planting as the ground won’t have dried out, he adds.

Such delays when winter harvests have already been diminished may result in a period of gaps on shelves, Ward warns.

“We are seeing a much more volatile climate and, when our food supply depends on that climate, we need to have a rethink about what the system looks like,” Ward argues.

“Not only is there a possibility we don’t have [the supply] but there is a distinct possibility other parts of Europe haven’t got it either.”

European shortages

This is particularly the case for salad lines, as witnessed at the start of 2023, when poor weather in southern Europe caused shortages of tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and lettuce. There is a risk this could be repeated in 2024, which is forecasted to be particularly hot and dry thanks to the El Niño climate phenomenon.

These weather issues will be compounded by the scaling back of UK production.

As for the British apple industry, “the picture is still not great”, says British Apples & Pears chair Ali Capper. A third of new trees were cancelled last year and 41% of those planned for planting in the winter of 23/24 have also been cancelled.

While the reduction in planting won’t cause immediate supply issues, it signals a long-term decline in the availability of a British fruit that will be difficult to reverse, Capper says.

Causing more immediate supply issues is the situation in glass house-grown crops. Cucumber growers in the UK finished early this year due to low returns from retailers and many intend to start later next year, in March or April instead of January, for the same reason, says Lee Stiles, secretary for the Lea Valley Growers Association.

This lack of returns from retailers has been long touted as a driving factor in declining grower confidence, leading to a drop in British production. Without the investment from retailers, growers have reported feeling they are taking on a disproportionate risk.

“People will be looking ahead to next year and going, ‘Well based on this year, do I want the same level of exposure to risk?’,” says Ward.

He adds: “The important message [is] about making sure the growers are given the right signals by the retailers to go ahead and plant next year.”