The bird flu epidemic that has plagued Europe since November is threatening to push up the cost of Christmas as it continues to “choke” the supply of imported turkey and increase trade prices.
British turkey farmer Paul Kelly said the devaluation of the pound coupled with the outbreak of the H5N8 virus had resulted in a 30% rise in import costs.
“The overwhelming reason for the current price rises is that bird flu has been raging through Europe and Millions of turkeys have had to be culled,” said the Kelly Turkeys MD. “My estimate would be the supply of about 10 million turkeys have been lost over the past few months, and as parent stock flocks were culled, supply going forward is also choked.
“So supply is short and demand is high, resulting in an inevitable price rise. How long it will last, who knows, but I would predict it will remain so for 2017.”
According to World Organisation for Animal Health figures, all strains of the rampant virus have caused the slaughtering of 9.5 million birds in 25 countries. Some 106,602 have been killed in the UK alone, including 55,000 ducks at a farm near Redgrave in Suffolk after they became infected.
In February, 23,000 chickens were destroyed at Bridge Farm, managed by Banham Poultry and used for breeding, near Redgrave.
The worst hit countries are Russia (2,400,870), France (1,296,765), Germany (1,192,552), and Poland (1,008,896).The wholesale cost of a whole turkey in Poland has risen from £1.63/kg to £1.75, says commodity data expert Mintec. Polish turkey breast meat prices have jumped from £3.25 to £3.43 per kg.
In Germany, the price of a turkey breast fillet is now £5.32, up 8p from November. The cost of a turkey thigh has also risen to £2.81, compared to £2.74 six months ago. Some 40% of turkey meat is imported into the UK from Poland and South America each year, mainly through foodservice and wholesale, according to Kelly.
“The net effect on specific channels and individual businesses will greatly depend on their respective product mixes,” said Faccenda Foods managing director Andy Dawkins.
But some have speculated that high demand and short supply could result in wholesalers reverting to frozen meat to stem the hiked prices on fresh produce but wholesalers have vowed to keep prices down.
Ian Phillips, a buyer at Bidfood, said: “Avian flu and the growing population over the last few years have caused pressure on the supply of turkey and made the market more challenging.
“Some of the main producing countries such as South America have also reduced the amount they export and are choosing to move it to their domestic markets instead, which has also added to strain on supply.
“One of the main costs involved in turkey production is the feed, which accounts for 65% of the total cost of rearing a fully mature bird. Over the last year while we’ve seen depreciation in sterling, the real cost of rearing birds has decreased, helping to offset that to a degree.”
He added that “many countries still see the UK as a very important market so while there is pressure on prices, we don’t expect to see the large increases being predicted.”
Britain’s largest wholesaler Booker said it sources the majority of its turkey meat from European producers.
“We have achieved full availability and maintained the same wholesale price as last year, despite the impact of avian flu and the devaluation of sterling, to ensure we offer our customers great choice, price and service,” said a Booker spokeswoman.
Brakes said it would be offering a full range of chilled and frozen turkey, “as it does every year”.
HM Revenue & Customs figures show the UK imported a total of 855,816 tonnes of poultry worth £2.1bn from South America, Europe, Asia, and America in 2016.
Poland accounted for 13% of that total with 107,969 tonnes, with the most coming from the Netherlands (30%) with 256,005 tonnes. Thailand was second with 140,133 tonnes.
No comments yet