Cowbeef squashes prices; bull beef values weakened; intervention casts shadow Continental outlook set to favour British buyers Press reports of EU agriculture commissioner Franz Fischler and his advisors in Brussels predicting the beef market will continue its gradual recovery from last year's BSE crisis on the continent do not signal inevitable further price increases in Britain. Though it is true data from Brussels and member state marketing organisation estimates suggest total EU consumption is now only 5% below normal', heavy stocks and price anomalies threaten persistent trade distortion. Cowbeef supplies are squashing prices in several member states, mainly the result of a surplus in the Netherlands following FMD. Bull beef values are also being weakened, with a proliferation of bargains for traders importing into the UK. France's import restrictions are a further weakness with latest livestock census results suggesting the French cattle herd was expanding in the first half of this year. Total EU cattle numbers are declining slightly, but the partial recovery of prices so far this year has been dependent on the removal of 800,000t through official market support and destruction schemes including BSE/FMD controls. The new year will start with at least a quarter of a million tonnes of intervention beef overhanging the market, casting a long price shadow. Few third country customers are showing much enthusiasm for beef ­ at present the only significant sales are to Russia. On the other hand, imports into the EU overall are likely to build up. South American, African and Australasian suppliers will show greater interest in Europe if political problems in the Middle East and the BSE scare in Japan continue weakening those markets. l Intervention stocks of beef might rise dramatically beyond the current 250,000t, EU officials fear. They suspect the total in EU coldstores will be nearly 350,000t by the end of this year and could reach 560,000t during 2002. {{MEAT }}

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