Bread prices have fallen for the first time since July 2007 but industry experts warn the drop is down to supermarket competition rather than falling wheat prices.

The average price of bakery goods at the big four on The Grocer 33 database has fallen 5.6% since September, from 88p to 83p, but remains 18.5% more expensive than this time last year. The sharpest drop was on budget own-label bread, which fell from an average of 41p to 30p at all four retailers, a saving of 26.8%. Sainsbury’s reduced its basic loaf by a third, from 45p to 30p.

“The market price of breadmaking wheat hasn’t fallen at all,” said NFU arable advisor Guy Gagan. “If anything, the opposite has happened.”

Mintec price expert Andrew Larkham said any price cuts on bread would most likely come from intensifying rivalry during the economic downturn.

The Grocer 33 figures, which include promotional discounts, showed the average price of croissants had fallen from 91p to 88p, in-store bakery wholemeal bread fell to £1.02 from £1.10 and Kingsmill fell from £1.22 to £1.15, partly fuelled by a £1 Tesco deal.

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