Christmas dinner to be 6.5% more expensive this year, says Kantar

Christmas dinner will cost 6.5% more this year, with the average price rising to £32.57, according to new Kantar data.

Frozen turkey is 8.5% more expensive than last year at an average of £14.09, while rising vegetable costs are also driving up the price of a festive meal.

Potatoes are up by 16.2% and cauliflower is up by 14.6%, according to Kantar. Parsnips, carrots, brussels sprouts, gravy granules, stuffing mix, cranberry sauce and Christmas pudding are also all said to be up in price.

However, sparkling wine is flat at an average £6.40.

The findings are at odds with The Grocer’s own, which are that turkey is up to 22% cheaper this year, based on data from Assosia.

Kantar’s findings also differ from the results of the first of two two planned Christmas Grocer 33 baskets, which last week showed a frozen turkey crown was 7% cheaper on average year-on-year across Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose.  

However, The Grocer’s KVI tracker last week found mince pies were up in price by as much as 40% year-on-year in the supermarkets, amid tight supply of sultanas and butter.

Read more: Turkey prices up to 22% cheaper as Christmas price cuts gather pace

The price rise recorded by Kantar for Christmas dinner is ahead of its wider grocery inflation, which was 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 December.

It means inflation is still driving growth across the major grocers, which collectively saw sales rise by 2.4% in the 12 weeks to the same date.

Lidl was named by Kantar as the fastest-growing bricks & mortar supermarket for the 16th month in a row, with its sales up by 6.6%. Its share climbed 0.3 percentage points to 7.7% as the discounter’s footfall stepped up by nearly 10% compared with a year earlier.

However, Kantar said grocery spend at M&S – which is usually excluded from its monthly market update – was up by 10.4% in the 12 weeks to 1 December, making it in fact the fastest-growing.

Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said just under one in three households, at 32%, bought food, drink and other groceries at M&S during the period. 

Sales at M&S’s online partner Ocado were up 8.7%, giving it a 1.8% market share. It outpaced the total online market, which grew by 3.6% as shoppers spent £4.2bn in the channel across the 12 weeks.

Tesco achieved its highest market share since December 2017, at 28.1%, up from 27.4% in 2023. Its sales grew by 5.2% in the 12 weeks.

Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9%, and spending through its tills was 4.7% higher than last year.

It leaves the two biggest grocers with a combined market share of 44%.

McKevitt said sales were forecast to exceed £13bn over the four weeks of December for the first time ever, as consumers spread their spend between retailers, benefiting the likes of M&S.

“The number of different retailers we visit in the run-up to Christmas is higher than at other times during the year, including wider high street brands like M&S,” said McKevitt.

“Just under one in three households, at 32%, bought food, drink and other groceries to have at home from M&S during the 12 weeks to 1 December and looking at grocery sales alone, spending at M&S rose by 10.4%.”

Source: Kantar