Global stock markets crashed on the news of Russia’s invasion, with the FTSE 100 sinking 3.9% on Thursday – but it bounced back to parity on Friday and is down a more muted 1.3% today.
So while there has been market-wide movement, focus has begun to centre on those companies most exposed to upheaval in the region.
Most notably in the UK, FTSE 100 Coca-Cola Hellenic has been badly hit. The company, of which Ukraine and Russia are two of its key regions, has seen its shares fall 9.6% today, having slumped 5.3% and are now down 13.3% over the past five days.
CCH has closed its plant in Ukraine and said it has “contingencies in place for all scenarios, including alternative sourcing”.
Other shares directly hit include listed tobacco firms, for which Eastern Europe represents key markets given the higher relative proportion of smokers there. Imperial Brands was down 7.1% on Thursday and 3.6% today, while British American Tobacco lost 5% on Thursday and 3.1% today.
Two Russian grocery firms with UK listings, Lenta and X5 Retail, have both been hammered on the market driven by the collapse in the rouble and economic sanctions. Supermarket group Lenta has lost a third of its value in a week, while fellow grocery player X5 is down a staggering 81% in 10 days, slumping by 67% just today.
There has been less direct impact on other major fmcg players with Russian operations and sales, but Bernstein picks out Danone, Henkel, Unilever and Beiersdorf as players with sales and margins at risk from the crisis.
“As if things couldn’t get any worse, given all the commodity price inflation and the struggles some of our companies have in passing it on, we now have an extra margin and sales growth headache with the war in Ukraine,” the broker said. “We don’t think share prices reflect yet this new level of additional sales and margin pressure.”
Nestlé, which has three factories and 5,000 staff in Ukraine, has halted manufacturing and distribution of its products in the country. Depsite this, Bernstein said the stock is “materially less impacted by these Russia developments”.
Bernstein also suggested the conflict could hit the wider luxury goods sector, where direct exposure to Russian and Ukrainian demand is today probably close to 4%-5% as a whole.
It noted Russia and Ukraine have very high income and wealth inequality, hence groups that operate in the high end (such as jewellery player Richemont) are likely going to be more exposed as sanctions, slowing global GDP and damage to wider consumer sentiment hit. Moët Hennessy owner LVMH is down 2.5% today, but remains flat for the week.
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