Between a fifth and a quarter of all UK pigmeat production goes into British bacon but total self-sufficiency is ruled out by MLC economist Sue Fisher in the June issue of Meat Demand Trends.
It is the first industry survey to have been published for five years, during which time the British pig industry has seen some of the hardest trading in living memory.
The 1997 peak in pig numbers was followed by a 6% rise in pork production in 1998 but bacon recorded a fall in output for the third year in succession.
"Although there were plenty of competitively priced pigs going into the slaughterhouses, the domestic industry had too few buyers for the fore-ends and legs," reported Fisher.
The strong pound from the beginning of 1999 made the export of these cuts "less commercially viable", she observed. The challenge for the British pigmeat industry is "to add value to the bits of the carcase not already selling on the home market."
Last year, the volume of the market was 470,000 tonnes, down just 7,000 tonnes on 1998. The pattern is of a slow but sustained decline: per capita consumption is described as "fairly stable" around 8kg.
However, while industry sources accept a total volume in that order, most would expect it to yield less after adjustment for boning out and trimming. An adjusted total volume of 350,000 tonnes, for instance, would cut per capita consumption to nearer 6kg than 8kg.
Despite the constant efforts to grade out lean pigs for bacon production, the much fiercer trimming of fat from today's rashers knocks back the final yield and takes the consumption figures with it.
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