Forecast may prove useful in defusing protests Imports of beef are likely to decline slightly this year, after a sharp increase in 1999, according to the latest edition of the MLC's quarterly Cattle Market Outlook. This published forecast may prove useful to major retailers and processors facing protests from farmers who believe an avalanche of overseas sourced meat is undermining home killed cattle prices. Producers are correct in claiming the UK market has had to absorb a surge of extra beef shipments from Ireland since last summer. Intrastat and Customs show total imports jumped 22% to 143,300 tonnes product weight in 1999, with the increase due entirely to Irish supplies increasing from less than 54,000t to 77,400t. The MLC analysts also acknowledge more recent reports of meat product manufacturers looking for additional tonnage from South America and Australia to replace the almost exhausted intervention stocks in this country. The Outlook points out there are probably still significant volumes of ex-intervention beef in UK private stores, but these will probably be depleted by mid-year and official stocks in other EU countries are also now minimal. The implication is increased demand here for third country manufacturing supplies. Nevertheless, in assessing import prospects overall, the MLC judges the tightening market in Ireland as likely to be more influential this year. A partial reversal of the increase in Irish supply to this country is predicted, taking total UK imports down by perhaps 5%. But next year could see a rebound to above the 1999 figure. {{MEAT }}

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