Forecasts for olive oil production across the Mediterranean countries have been downgraded again.
Following enthusiasm amongst olive oil buyers earlier this year when forecasts pointed to a bump in production in countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy, the sentiment is now “more negative”, according to industry sources.
Flowering predictions pointed to a total global crop of 3.3 million to 3.4 million tonnes initially, but these figures have been revised down to 3.0 million tonnes last week due to the setting of the fruit being lower than expected.
While this is still an improvement on the last crop, which delivered just 2.3 million tonnes, growers have warned that “if we have a repeat of the really hot summers experienced in the last two years, the total production could reduce”.
The prospects in Italy now are for a crop of 230,000 to 240,000 tonnes, a substantial reduction from the 300,000 tonnes produced in the last campaign.
In Spain, the world’s biggest producer, forecasts have been revised down from 1.5 million tonnes to 1.2million to 1.3 million tonnes.
“Supply is set to remain very tight during July to November and bottlers will need new-season oils in order to refresh their stocks,” said Filippo Berio’s UK MD Walter Zanre.
Read more: Spain to cut olive oil VAT from July to ease consumer prices
Mediterranean countries have been battling extreme drought conditions for three years in a row, which has massively impacted olive oil output and increased prices on a global scale.
The most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that the average price of olive oil was still rising and was now £8.04 a bottle, up 39% from £5.78 at the same time last year.
The average prices for own-label olive oil were up 36% year on year last week at £7.53, according to The Grocer’s KVI.
The quality of the extra virgin olive oil has also decreased, according to Zanre.
Routine sampling results seen by The Grocer show a deterioration in quality of olive oils across the board.
“Today it is almost impossible to buy good quality extra virgin olive oils,” Zanre says.
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