Other countries likely to grow capacity and push EU market into surplus Cheaper pork and bacon next year is the message to UK buyers from Denmark, where latest farm census results show an astonishing increase in pig numbers. Although the Danes are confident of recovering sufficient international business after the FMD disruption to avoid severe pressure on their output prices, the incentives tempting Danish producers to expand breeding herds are seen as likely to prompt capacity growth in other countries and push the overall EU market into surplus. Denmark's breeding herd was nearly 10% bigger on April 1 than a year earlier, according to the census returns. The number of pigs over 50kg at census date, being fattened for slaughter, was up 8%. This slightly exaggerates the underlying increase in pigmeat production, as the export problems resulting from FMD caused a backlog of finishing pigs to build up on the farms. Nevertheless, the breeding herd expansion has been "much sharper than we expected", according to Karsten Flemin, economist at the processing industry organisation Danske Slagterier. Significantly, there was an increase of more than 12% in the number of maiden gilts, the young stock expected to be used for breeding, a pointer to a further surge in slaughter pig availability later in the year. Flemin told The Grocer the herd expansion was attributable partly to increased confidence in the pig sector, reflecting the switch in EU consumer demand away from beef in response to the BSE scares. But there were also attempts by Danish farmers to boost production capacity before increasingly tough environmental and animal welfare legislation made further business development impossible. Heavier output from the Danish industry need not destabilise the EU market in the short term, because export customers are returning as the FMD troubles subside. "Japan in open again, and Russia is almost open," said Flemin. "And we hope the US will reopen in a week or two." However, Flemin acknowledged heavier supply in Denmark, and probably Spain and Germany, would soften the EU market next year. {{M/E MEAT }}

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