Mixed picture with slight rise in slaughterings expected Danish herd contracting Production capacity on Denmark's pig farms is contracting, but there is no prospect of anything like the pork supply squeeze under way in the UK. Results of the latest Danish livestock census are ambiguous, showing fewer breeding sows last month than a year ago while pointing to a likely slight increase in clean pig slaughterings this summer. The mixed messages are not surprising, as the previous farm census in January also revealed negligible evidence of cutbacks and since then pig farmers have enjoyed modest price increases. The year began with the average price at about 8 kroner per kg (70p) and major buyers trying to convince farmers it would not go beyond 9.50kr despite a quite sharp decline in slaughterings. Optimists among producers were looking to a midyear price of perhaps 12kr. So far the buyers have been proved almost right, with the price still only about 9.50 (just 75p in stronger sterling). British producers watching for a sharp drop in Danish output might see the 3.3% decline in breeding sow numbers revealed by the latest census as reflecting disappointment at the market weakness. However, the price has risen faster than Danish farmers were warned to expect, even if not as high as they hoped, and the year-on-year gain now is a confidence-boosting 35%. Furthermore, as MLC analysts point out, the breeding stock decline is less severe than it appears because numbers were exceptionally high 12 months ago. And within Denmark's pig sector talk is of consolidation into bigger units and medium term herd expansion, offsetting some short-term cyclical contraction. {{MEAT }}

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