Costs are on the up but stories of 10% price increases by Christmas seem OTT, as The Grocer Price Index reveals they are going the other way. Elinor Zuke reports
Near-hysterical stories about food inflation have appeared in the national press in the past few weeks, with some predicting prices will soar by 10% by Christmas. It seems there's no need to panic just yet, though, as The Grocer Price Index reveals that despite rising commodity costs prices have fallen overall in the past month.
Across the big four, the average price of our shopping trolley fell 0.9% during September. Waitrose prices were also down 0.5%.
Tesco was the only retailer to buck the trend and put up its prices (by 0.7%). It made hikes in just over half the categories measured, including bakery, dry grocery and fruit & vegetables.
Morrisons and Asda reduced their prices by the greatest amount last month (1.8% and 1.7% respectively). As a result, the difference between Tesco and Asda prices are at their greatest since March, with an average of 10p per item between them. Tesco was still cheaper than Morrisons but only by a penny, compared with 12p just three months ago.
With Waitrose gearing up to appeal to a broader customer base by matching Tesco prices on 1,000 branded items, The Grocer Price Index tracked a drop of 0.5% at the retailer. This is the first reduction recorded by Waitrose since we began tracking an extended basket in March.
Across the big four, deli prices rose the most out of all categories and are now 20% more expensive than in April.
The final effects of a summer of heavily discounted alcoholic drinks left the market as the price of booze crept up 1% to return to the GPI's March base measure. The other increase in the Index was a 1% hike in frozen food prices, fuelled by increases of 4.5% at Asda and 6% at Tesco.
However, a ban on Russian wheat exports failed to push up prices in the bakery category as fierce promotions continued and prices fell for the second month running.
The biggest fall was in the chilled category, with prices down 5% compared with six months ago, although chilled desserts remained fairly stable. Fresh soup drove the reduction, with retailers slashing prices in preparation for autumn.
Morrisons made the deepest cuts in chilled, dropping its prices by an average of 22.8%.
Ironically, Asda which initiated the ongoing milk price war was the only retailer to put up its prices in the dairy category (by 2.2%), bringing its average price in line with the industry average.
Near-hysterical stories about food inflation have appeared in the national press in the past few weeks, with some predicting prices will soar by 10% by Christmas. It seems there's no need to panic just yet, though, as The Grocer Price Index reveals that despite rising commodity costs prices have fallen overall in the past month.
Across the big four, the average price of our shopping trolley fell 0.9% during September. Waitrose prices were also down 0.5%.
Tesco was the only retailer to buck the trend and put up its prices (by 0.7%). It made hikes in just over half the categories measured, including bakery, dry grocery and fruit & vegetables.
Morrisons and Asda reduced their prices by the greatest amount last month (1.8% and 1.7% respectively). As a result, the difference between Tesco and Asda prices are at their greatest since March, with an average of 10p per item between them. Tesco was still cheaper than Morrisons but only by a penny, compared with 12p just three months ago.
With Waitrose gearing up to appeal to a broader customer base by matching Tesco prices on 1,000 branded items, The Grocer Price Index tracked a drop of 0.5% at the retailer. This is the first reduction recorded by Waitrose since we began tracking an extended basket in March.
Across the big four, deli prices rose the most out of all categories and are now 20% more expensive than in April.
The final effects of a summer of heavily discounted alcoholic drinks left the market as the price of booze crept up 1% to return to the GPI's March base measure. The other increase in the Index was a 1% hike in frozen food prices, fuelled by increases of 4.5% at Asda and 6% at Tesco.
However, a ban on Russian wheat exports failed to push up prices in the bakery category as fierce promotions continued and prices fell for the second month running.
The biggest fall was in the chilled category, with prices down 5% compared with six months ago, although chilled desserts remained fairly stable. Fresh soup drove the reduction, with retailers slashing prices in preparation for autumn.
Morrisons made the deepest cuts in chilled, dropping its prices by an average of 22.8%.
Ironically, Asda which initiated the ongoing milk price war was the only retailer to put up its prices in the dairy category (by 2.2%), bringing its average price in line with the industry average.
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