The Competition Commission will be torn between consumer and manufacturer best interests if the Safeway sale is referred to it by the OFT, according to seminar speakers.
An Asda/ Wal-Mart takeover would benefit consumers by bringing prices down ­ which would be good news for inflation. But manufacturers would be best off under Morrisons, said Littlewoods chairman David Simons and analyst Mike Dennis.
The speakers agreed it was time for the authorities to provide an official definition of food retail market share in the light of the way the market has continued to develop rapidly since the Competition Commission report in 2000.
Dennis said: "It is a complicated market. It needs to be looked at it in a different way, not just market share, but from the perspective of suppliers and consumers."
A benchmark for pure grocery retailers, excluding non-food, was needed. "There is no predictive analysis on trends or way of measuring effective competition two years ahead," he said.
Gordon Farquharson, chief statistician at market data analysis company Claritas, said Competition Commission guidelines of a catchment of 15 minutes' drivetime needed to be reviewed as they did not consider local variations. For example a 15-minute drive would cover around 3.2 supermarkets in London, but offer little coverage in Scotland.
Ed Garner, communications director of TNS Superpanel, said a successful Tesco bid, before stores were divested, would result in Tesco being dominant in eight out of 10 regions ­ "a virtual dictatorship".
If successful Morrisons would only have over 25% market share in the north east and Yorkshire.
Sainsbury and Asda would both go over the limit in six different regions.
All speakers agreed that consumers would see a "price bonanza" as the sale of Safeway would spark new supermarket price offensives.
The increased competition would lead to a "feeding frenzy on price", said Simons.
Simons believed a Morrisons win would give the best balance between satisfying consumers and manufacturers.

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