A slump in UK lamb stocks caused by poor lambing conditions earlier this year is likely to have significant knock-on effects on volumes and pricing into 2019.
Average deadweight lamb prices hit a peak of 619.5p/kg on 19 May [AHDB], up 29% on the same time last year, following a tightening in supply caused by a surge in lamb mortality.
Despite 2018 starting with a healthy “carryover” of some 250,000 extra lambs into the UK system, this year’s “terrible” lambing period caused by February’s ‘Beast from the East’ means the total UK lamb crop is estimated to be down by a million compared with 2017 levels, says AHDB senior analyst Duncan Wyatt.
This represents a 5.5% drop in numbers, from about 18 million to 17 million sheep, which is expected to continue into 2019, Wyatt adds, due to a shortage of breeding stock.
“Many ewes were lost in this year’s snow,” Wyatt says. “We also expect farmers to have killed some ewe lambs this year, instead of retaining them as breeding stock for next year.”
It comes as data published last week by the Scottish government revealed Scottish lamb numbers were down 8% on the previous year due to this year’s poor weather. This represented the lowest lamb crop since 2013.
Tighter domestic supplies, combined with continuing shortages from New Zealand, could lead to a fresh wave of price rises for UK lamb next year, Wyatt says. Buyers at least have more notice of any supply difficulties this year and could plan ahead, he adds.
But “production remains constrained in New Zealand and they are seeing a lot of demand from China and the US, which means it should keep a lot of their lamb off the UK market” he warns.
“So you can see a similar situation emerging for next year, which means we might see elevated prices again.”
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