by Ian Prophet, account director, and Caroline Stockley, senior account executive, TNS Superpanel The British wrapped bread market declined marginally in the year to April 1. Retail sales were estimated at £1.057bn (-1% year on year) with volume declining at the faster rate of -3% year on year, equivalent to 1.9 billion 800g loaves. Plant bread dominates with an 80% value share, where Tesco, the leading retailer, shows sales up 8%. Although total plant bread volume has fallen, Tesco, Asda and Morrisons have all performed well. In-store bakery bread has declined in most retailers, leading to a 6% decrease in volume. Only Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose have shown positive growth for ISB bread. Bread buyers still prefer white bread, which accounts for 74% of market volume, but both white and brown bread are responsible for driving the overall volume decline. There has been renewed interest in the wholemeal sector, however, with sales up 4% year on year. This improvement is principally through strong performances by Allied Bakeries' Kingsmill brand and Warburtons. Pricing remains a major issue in the bread market, although the average price per loaf has risen by 1p. The economy bread wars, when prices fell to 7p a loaf, are a distant memory, but prices have fallen in the premium sector, increasing the pressure on margins. This has produced a shift away from economy bread (-23% year on year) into premium (+12% year on year), which now accounts for more than one third of total wrapped bread volume. Within the pastries market, hot cross buns have overtaken doughnuts to become the largest sector (£75m, +39% year on year), with both Tesco and Sainsbury driving growth. Danish pastries are the fastest growing sector (+44% year on year) with 94% of sales being ISB pastries. Sainsbury's is the leading retailer for this sector as it is for sweet muffins, where there has been a significant swing from big bakery products towards ISB. Bread Sector retail Shares (Value) White 70.4% Wholemeal 19.3% Brown 10.3% 52 w/e Apr 2 52 w/e Apr 1 YOY Wrapped bread 2000 2001 % spend (£s) 1,064,110,375 1,057,144,125 -1 Wrapped bread volume (800g units) 1,970,752,000 1,912,153,125 -3 {{FOCUS SPECIALS }}

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