A "perfect storm" of environmental and economic factors has sent wholesale prawn prices soaring.
The Urner Barry shrimp indices key indicators for global prawn prices were 30% higher this week than they were a year ago, standing at $3.71 for white shrimp and $6.64 for black tiger shrimp.
The price of Northern coldwater prawns has shot up 12% year-on-year with king prawns up 36% and river prawns up 22%, according to Mintec.
Wholesale increases have not yet been passed on to consumers in most cases but with wholesale prices expected to stay high in the medium term they would eventually feed through to retail, warned analysts.
Prawn prices had fallen steadily over the previous 10 years as supply increased, but unprecedented consolidation in the industry had made the market more unpredictable, with increased price volatility, said Rabobank seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik.
"From now on, we are no longer on a downward path with price," he said. "I would think higher prices are here to stay for the next three years."
Supply of the warmwater prawn market had tightened in the wake of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a disease outbreak in Indonesia.
The export market had also been hit by China's decision to focus more on its domestic market, leaving Thailand as the dominant warmwater exporter.
On the cold-water side, supply has weakened following production issues in Canada, and Greenland catching less than its quota. "Supply shortages on the wild side could be significant," said Jon Harman of trade organisation Seafish. "We will know in the next four to six weeks."
The vast majority of prawns on British supermarket shelves are imported. Last year, the UK imported 55,928 tonnes of warmwater prawns and 28,936 of coldwater prawns.
The average price of a 200g pack of large king prawns across the big four retailers and Waitrose is currently £2.52 [BrandView, 29 September].
The Urner Barry shrimp indices key indicators for global prawn prices were 30% higher this week than they were a year ago, standing at $3.71 for white shrimp and $6.64 for black tiger shrimp.
The price of Northern coldwater prawns has shot up 12% year-on-year with king prawns up 36% and river prawns up 22%, according to Mintec.
Wholesale increases have not yet been passed on to consumers in most cases but with wholesale prices expected to stay high in the medium term they would eventually feed through to retail, warned analysts.
Prawn prices had fallen steadily over the previous 10 years as supply increased, but unprecedented consolidation in the industry had made the market more unpredictable, with increased price volatility, said Rabobank seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik.
"From now on, we are no longer on a downward path with price," he said. "I would think higher prices are here to stay for the next three years."
Supply of the warmwater prawn market had tightened in the wake of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a disease outbreak in Indonesia.
The export market had also been hit by China's decision to focus more on its domestic market, leaving Thailand as the dominant warmwater exporter.
On the cold-water side, supply has weakened following production issues in Canada, and Greenland catching less than its quota. "Supply shortages on the wild side could be significant," said Jon Harman of trade organisation Seafish. "We will know in the next four to six weeks."
The vast majority of prawns on British supermarket shelves are imported. Last year, the UK imported 55,928 tonnes of warmwater prawns and 28,936 of coldwater prawns.
The average price of a 200g pack of large king prawns across the big four retailers and Waitrose is currently £2.52 [BrandView, 29 September].
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