Is HFSS going to work? The trials say: probably

When Boris Johnson first pledged to crack down on HFSS foods in July 2020, the official strategy referred to data that showed while promotions may seemingly help shoppers save money, the reality was they encourage people to buy more than they need – 20% more than they otherwise would.

Now, recent HFSS trials by major food manufacturers including Unilever, Kellogg’s and Innocent suggest these figures are bang on. Reapp, a data app that uses EPoS data from a range of leading brands, tracked sales of products for a six-month period from March to September 2022. It found HFSS categories including biscuits and chilled products saw a 20% fall in sales when the restrictions were in place.

“The law was brought out to reduce volume sales and consumption of high fat, salt and sugar products and that’s exactly what the law is going to do,” says James Lamplugh, group sales marketing director at Dee Set, which owns Reapp.

While Reapp found the HFSS laws also led to a boost in sales across healthy categories of up to 10%, “the challenge from the retailer perspective is whether this will offset the margin impact that’s going to go through the tills,” Lamplugh adds.

In many cases, retailers including Tesco and Sainsbury’s are using in-aisle bays to try and claw back some of those lost sales on HFSS brands, but according to the research, their success has been mixed.

In most cases, the uplift is small, typically between 3% and 8%, according to Virtual Store Trials. It’s a far cry from the major incremental sales these brands may be used to when appearing on aisle ends.

The other issue is that these kinds of bays sometimes don’t work at all. “We came to the really annoying conclusion that sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t,” says Nick Theodore, Virtual Store Trials founder and CEO.

Much of the bay’s impact depends upon the language used, Theodore explains. “Anything involving ‘low-calorie’ or ‘healthy’ performs poorly as shoppers entering that aisle are often looking for some kind of indulgence,” he says. Tesco, however, may disagree. It has rolled out a number of ‘Better Baskets’ aisles across its stores for products under 100 calories.

Using ‘better’ or ‘good’ is often a recipe for success in these bays, Theodore says, pointing to Mr Kipling’s recent ‘Deliciously Good’ launch of reformulated HFSS cakes that have performed strongly since their debut.

Ultimately, few businesses are thought to have landed on any firm conclusions. “Everyone is still testing and learning,” says Theodore. “I haven’t seen a clear Tesco strategy, a clear Asda strategy, or a clear Sainsbury’s strategy.”