Cereal 2024: own-brand cereals come to the fore

Brits continue to say no to branded cereal. After the miserable 12 months we reported in 2023, volumes this year have fallen by 6.5% with value at little less than flat at –0.2%. The top 20 brands have shifted 12.7 million fewer kilograms between them, as shoppers seek cheaper own-label alternatives.

A key reason for brands’ decline is inflationary pressure. “The rising cost of living and economic slowdown have hurt the category’s volume growth,” confirms Prashant Chahal, NIQ customer success senior insight analyst. “Brands have adapted to rising raw material costs and the cost of living crisis by employing strategies like shrinkflation.”

He points to Corn Flakes, which shrunk its packs by as much as 10% this year. But prices on shelf stayed the same, thereby increasing the price per kilo. That in turn has helped drive a 6.7% increase in average price across cereal brands, at a time when consumers continue to feel the pinch.

“Price sensitivity continues to drive consumers away from products perceived as offering less value,” Chahal adds. “This has hindered volume growth for brands like Shredded Wheat, which faced losses after double-digit price increases.”

In fact, Shredded Wheat volume sales are down 18.1%. In an effort to justify its 27.2% price increase, owner Cereal Partners UK is shouting about its sustainability efforts.

“In 2022, we launched the Nestlé Wheat Plan to help our British wheat farmers transition to regenerative farming practices,” says Sarah Fordy, UK head of marketing. “Leading the consumer communication on the Nestlé Wheat Plan is Shredded Wheat.” Its packs now feature “detailed information on how we support our farmers”, she adds.

With volumes down 7.2%, Weetabix has also been talking itself up. It kicked off a £10m ad push in April, showing a scientist sharing his “discovery of national importance” with an audience of state officials. “Britain hasn’t been so great of late because it hasn’t had its Weetabix,” he told them.

While Brits might be falling out of favour with having wheat biscuits for brekkie, they seem awfully keen on oats. Brands with porridge lines have bucked cereal’s downward trend. Fuel10K has grown volume sales by 9.2%, while smaller players Flahavan’s, Mornflake and Ready Brek are up by 17.9%, 9.3% and 6.7% respectively.

Porridge leader Quaker, however, has failed to capitalise on this craze. Its volumes are down 3.9% and value has slipped 1.1%.

In response to declining sales, it expanded its protein range with Peanut Butter in April and Strawberries & Cream in June. In porridge, says Quaker GM Divesh Parmar, “many consumers, including younger shoppers, are looking for added benefits”.

Read more: Cereal 2023: Cost of living and HFSS hit cereal brands