Vaping & tobacco 2024: time ticking as disposable vapes ban looms

The death of the disposable vape may have already begun. Ahead of next year’s ban, the vaping category has shed £43.6m and sold 2.7 million fewer units. Worst hit is ElfBar, best known for its colourful 600 Disposable device. It’s down £284m – the biggest absolute loss in this year’s Top Products.

Indeed take-up of vaping appears to have peaked. It had already begun slowing last year. The most recent ONS figures show 5.9% of people aged 16 and older vaped every day in 2023, up only slightly from the previous year’s 5.2%. Another 3.9% vaped occasionally, up from 3.5%.

That was followed by research from UCL that in October found the rise in vaping had “levelled off” since early 2023.

Of those who still enjoy huffing fat clouds of flavoured vapour, 66% say disposables are their primary device, according to Vape Superstore. So, what happens when they are outlawed in April 2025?

A small percentage of users are expected to switch to tobacco. For the majority, though, it’s a matter of switching to reusable and refillable alternatives, says Vape Superstore marketing chief David Phillips.

“Far from signalling the end of anyone’s vaping journey, we believe the disposable ban will drive vapers to embrace more sustainable options like refillable vapes and prefilled pod kits. Reusable vape kits offer the same effortless convenience at much lower cost. Disposables are out, but reusable vaping has never been easier.”

That explains why some of the category’s biggest brands – known for their disposables – are hoping to maintain their appeal through new reusable devices. They have always been part of ElfBar and Lost Mary’s “long-term strategy”, insists a spokeswoman for the sister brands. These reusable products “position them for continued success”.

Those products include ElfBar’s ElfX open pod vape, added in July, and Lost Mary’s 4-in-1 device (see Top Launch, below).

“While single-use vapes remain the dominant product category, regulatory changes, including the forthcoming single-use vape ban, are reshaping the market,” adds the spokeswoman.

“While the ban will impact sales, we expect it to lead to a shift in demand towards alternative product formats.”

The two brands’ “advantage lies in their strong brand recognition, high-quality products and flavours that prioritise the adult user’s experience, and their proprietary technology”, she says.

Unlike ElfBar, Lost Mary faces next year’s shake-up in decent shape. It’s seen an extra 1.8 million units go through tills.

The category’s biggest winner, however, is rival SKE Crystal Bar. Its units are up 111%, while its £240.8m gain is the second-biggest of any product in grocery. It’s now the UK’s number one vaping brand.

The secret to SKE’s success is the “huge amount of research it puts into understanding what consumers want”, says a spokeswoman for the brand. It has also “secured the right distribution channels, which allows us to get our products to our customers in retail outlets up and down the country”.

There’s a constant churn among challenger brands. IVG and Gold Bar are worth an extra £140.5m in total, having shifted a combined 12.9 million extra packs.

The key to maintaining momentum will be pushing permissible devices, says Liam Humberstone, technical director at vape brand & retailer Totally Wicked.

“The single-use disposable vape ban will almost certainly mean a reduction in overall vape revenues, but the popularity of the brands cannot be denied. The fact that these brands have already developed rechargeable, refillable formats of their products should ensure that consumers have a viable alternative, which will be important after the single-use ban,” says Humberstone.

“Every change forced on a market allows the opportunity for new competition, but the leading brands are still showing some ability to develop future products that resonate with consumers while meeting upcoming legislation.”

Tobacco in rapid decline

Tobacco is also facing a further clampdown. From 2027, the minimum age to buy cigarettes and RYO will increase by one year each year.

It’s a move that will hit a category already in rapid decline. In absolute value terms, cigarettes & cigars is the biggest losing sector of Top Products 2024, down £588.1m, while loose tobacco’s 21.6% volume decline is faster than any other market’s.

Of the impending generational ban, however, “any impact on sales will be very gradual”, insists Sarah Connor, communications director at JTI UK.

“Longer term, the reduction in the number of people buying tobacco will be slow, and we will continue to build a strong presence across categories, including reduced-risk products, to successfully fulfil consumer choice,” she adds.

Certainly, innovation will be needed to prevent more value going up in smoke.

Read more: Vaping & tobacco 2023: Controversy can’t prevent ElfBar boom