Hundreds of millions of pounds of marketing spend for this year’s golden quarter are “in limbo” – including blockbuster Christmas ads from the supermarkets – due to confusion over the government’s new HFSS advertising rules, The Grocer can reveal.
Supermarkets and leading food brands claim they have been unable to push ahead with the usual spending decisions and creative planning on TV and associated in-store advertising campaigns.
And sources are warning even supermarket Christmas ads for the likes of Aldi’s Kevin the Carrot, Sainsbury’s BFG and the M&S fairy could be caught up if the new rules are applied in their current form.
Eight of the top 10 “most effective” Christmas ads of 2024 based on Kantar data would be banned, including Christmas specials from Aldi, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s, as well as ads from Cadbury, KFC, Coca-Cola.
Last month the Advertising Standards Authority launched a consultation on proposals which would see branded ads fall under the new 9pm watershed, due to come into force from 1 October, even if they are not specifically for “less healthy foods (LHF)”, the products outlawed under the legislation.
Indeed the ban would also impact brands even if they don’t advertise specific products.
As The Grocer has previously revealed some companies are considering legal action over the restrictions, but sources have said the confusion is wreaking havoc on marketing plans too.
“The consultation process, with the challenge of drawing a clear distinction between product and brand advertising, is placing pressure on business planning for this year’s Christmas period,” a source told The Grocer.
“It’s likely to take until May to June at the earliest to provide final guidance, possibly longer, leaving the UK’s biggest supermarkets and fmcg brands with a much-shortened window to deliver an effective advertising and marketing campaign for the critical Christmas sales period.
“This has the potential to have a massive negative impact on businesses just at a point when economic growth is vital.”
The source added: “While it is extremely difficult to split this total spend into what falls in and out of scope as defined by LHF, it would be fair to say there are hundreds of millions of pounds to be committed for this year’s golden quarter currently in limbo, waiting for clarification by government and the co-regulatory system on what can and can’t be advertised.”
Advertising sources have warned of a huge economic hit from the proposals, with more than £350m spent on food advertising on digital, social and TV in Q4 2023, according to the latest available NIQ figures.
It has also emerged advertisers expect the October ban to see the disappearance of a raft of the UK’s best-loved and most effective ads, even if they don’t advertise specific products.
Analysis of Kantar figures shows eight out of the 10 “most effective” Christmas ads of 2024 would not be permitted, including ads for Cadbury, KFC, Coca-Cola, Aldi, Morrisons, M&S and Sainsbury’s.
“Whilst the supermarket can flex what they promote, there’s little doubt the ads will look very different, particularly the range of products that may be included,” said a source.
They added: “Christmas advertising season planning normally starts in quarter one of each year, because the ad creative takes time to research, develop, produce and test before it is finished.
“It is also often integrated through the in-store experience for customers, as well as online, meaning a wide range of marketing materials are also produced in support.
“The longer the delay, the more pressure this puts on what will realistically be possible to deliver this quarter four.”
Andrea Martinez-Inchausti, deputy director of food at the British Retail Consortium, said: “We don’t believe the draft guidance has provided the clarity needed by brands and retailers.
“Businesses are waiting to press go on the latest advertising campaigns for autumn, which is why the final guidance from the ASA is so vital.”
”The major shift in focus and approach in the new draft guidance means many food and beverage businesses are having to reconsider their advertising strategy which will have been developed with the previous iteration of the draft guidance in mind,” added Katrina Anderson, of law firm Mills & Reeve.
”The timing is hugely problematic especially for brands that predominantly advertise on TV, as the all-important Christmas adverts are typically already at a late stage in development and no/no-go decisions for Christmas 2026 ads need to be made very soon. So many businesses are having to make decisions about whether to go ahead with the advertising without having the finalised guidance – and therefore without being able to fully understand the legal risk.”
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