A global shortage of cocoa, triggered by adverse weather, has pushed up chocolate prices. For that reason, value growth across the top 10 chocolate brands is “primarily inflation driven”, says NIQ customer success consultant lead Iryna Stanislavska. They’ve added £226.4m, while the overall category is up in value 13% on volumes down 0.9%.
1. Cadbury Dairy Milk
▼ 1.7% (59.2 million kg)
Cadbury Dairy Milk has seen volumes drop 1.7%. The market leader “has been underperforming against the category due to lower distribution and promotional activities”, says Stanislavska.
2. Galaxy
▼ 1.8% (18.2 million kg)
Galaxy is down in volumes 1.8%, Lindt Lindor has shed 3.2%, and Cadbury Twirl is down 7.2%. All were impacted “by a combination of decreased demand, distribution losses, and the growing preference for retailers’ own labels”, Stanislavska says.
3. Maltesers
▲ 0.2% (15.2 million kg)
4. Celebrations
▼ 7.3% (12.1 million kg)
“Significant price increases have driven shoppers to opt for own label to manage their budgets. Even when on promotion, brands struggle to compete with the lower pricing strategy of own label,” she adds.
5. Cadbury Twirl
▼ 7.2% (10.7 million kg)
6. M&M’s
▼ 1.7% (8.4 million kg)
Rising cocoa bean prices will “continue to have an impact on volume sales of chocolate, as manufacturers are forced to increase prices”, says Kantar analyst Joe Speller. It is still unclear how the October harvest will turn out. Suppliers are hoping a good season will push prices down, but if this doesn’t happen, they have warned retail prices will keep rising for months.
7. Lindt Lindor
▼ 3.2% (8.1 million kg)
8. Cadbury Wispa
▲ 6.4% (7.9 million kg)
Brands face a tricky balancing act, says Speller. “It will continue to be a challenge for manufacturers to find a price point that mitigates volume losses but still ensures value growth,” he says. “Shoppers may look at more affordable alternatives.”
9. Kinder
▲ 7.9% (6.0 million kg)
10. Ferrero Rocher
▼ 1.8% (4 .8 million kg)
It’s not all bad news for brands. Kinder, Cadbury Wispa and Maltesers have bucked the trend of volume declines. They’re up 7.9%, 6.4% and 0.2% respectively.
Source: NIQ 52 w/e 22 June 2024. Figure in brackets is total absolute volume.
NIQ monitors weekly data from a national network of EPoS scanners to represent sales in grocery multiples, co-ops, multiple off-licences, independents, forecourts, convenience multiples, symbols and online grocery retailers.
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