Shoppers have been re-evaluating red meat, but not necessarily in a good way

The Top Products Survey is always full of surprises. And this one, tracking the performance of thousands of products in a record 127 categories – has more surprises than ever, while the inclusion of EPoS data from Aldi, Lidl and Amazon for the first time means it’s a comprehensive read. Just what we need as we all take stock of another extraordinary year.

But the biggest surprise is the resurgence in sales of fresh beef and lamb. The category has been in decline for many years amid widespread health and environmental concerns. And the strong growth in sales partly reflects the overall welcome rise of scratch cooking. But whether it’s the influence of social media on the smash burger craze, the launch of clever new product development from supermarkets and their suppliers, or dissatisfaction with meat-free options, it’s clear shoppers have been re-evaluating red meat.

Read more: The Big Book of Grocery: Top Products Survey 2024

Trouble is, it’s not necessarily in a good way. Or not if the industry is to achieve its net zero targets. And it’s also at odds with the direction of travel that Labour’s National Food Strategy is trying to lead us in. While promising it will always have the consumer at its heart, it’s difficult to see how the flagship strategy doesn’t trample all over consumer choice.

Keir Starmer has repeatedly said Labour won’t tell consumers what to eat. So how does it square the circle and tackle meat consumption? As angry farmers again protested in Westminster this week, it’s one of many minefields Defra boss Steve Reed faces in his “coalition of the willing”.

Another is persuading supermarkets and food manufacturers to get on board. Wanting everyone to come together in sweet harmony sounds terrific, but with billions in extra NIC costs from the Chancellor’s Halloween horror budget, and the industry already facing multibillion EPR costs, plus other potential regulation to tackle obesity coming down the track, it’s not surprising an FDF poll out this week shows confidence has slumped. And a new IGD report this week predicts food inflation will rise to 5% in 2025. These are not ideal conditions for a cosy chat.

Nor does it help that in the same week that Defra was taking the lead on food policy, chief medical officer Chris Whitty was again calling for fat taxes.

But dialogue with ministers and civil servants is better than stony silence. Influence comes from keeping the communication channels open. Despite various groups calling on Labour to freeze the industry out of talks on topics like obesity, the National Food Strategy appears to show Defra wants to involve the industry. Labour cannot achieve a fraction of the NFS goals without the industry onboard. It will be fascinating to see how the conversations develop next year.